Hossein Jorjani
First publication: 2026 – 06 – 30
In Aphorism I:70 of the Novum Organum (1620), Bacon warns that the evidential force of an experiment should remain “rooted in the experiment itself” unless its conclusions are transferred to other cases by a proper and orderly method. This caution anticipates what may be called extrapolation in a broad methodological sense: extending the evidential force of an experiment, method, or model beyond the conditions under which it has been established.
In its narrow sense, extrapolation denotes the extension of an inference beyond the range of the original observations. In a broader methodological sense, it includes transferring experimental results, instruments, or theoretical frameworks to new contexts without adequate empirical validation. Examples include applying a psychological test developed for one population to another without demonstrating its validity, extending economic models based on perfectly rational agents to contexts dominated by emotion or social influence, or applying Kuhn’s model of paradigm change—formulated primarily from the history of physics—to disciplines whose development may follow different patterns.
In all such cases, apparent similarity may conceal structurally important differences. Bacon’s insistence that demonstration remain rooted in experience therefore serves as a methodological caution against assuming that evidence obtained under one set of conditions automatically retains its force under another.
Bacon, F. (1620) Novum Organum, Aphorism I-LXX (1:70)
But by far the best form of demonstration is experience—provided it remains rooted in the experiment itself [1] [2]. For if it is transferred to other cases that are presumed similar, unless such transfer is made in a proper and orderly way, the result is deceptive [3]. Yet the current method of experimenting is blind and thoughtless. Thus, people stray and wander without any clear path, relying only on the accidents of events to guide them. They touch on many things but advance little. At times they are enthusiastic; at other times, scattered and distracted. They are always discovering something else to pursue.
Hossein Jorjani 